The Other Fifteen

Okay, so apparently the big storyline in Mesa so far this year is the epic battle between Felix Pie and Sam Fuld. Anyone willing to gag me with a spoon now will have my eternal gratitude.

But even in the context of this asinine little contest, Gordon Wittenmyer has gone too far:

STICK
Neither has big-time major-league power, a fact better recognized by Fuld, who has less spectacular minor-league numbers but is a more accomplished hitter with a smaller strike zone that he uses to his advantage. EDGE: Fuld.

Um.

Let's review. 2007, AAA Iowa, center fielders. FIGHT!

So, let me get this straight - the "more accomplished" hitter is the one that came up to AAA, put up some very fluky numbers (given his AA performance) in a small sample size, and STILL is .145 points of OPS behind Pie? Or maybe they're talking about accomplishments in the majors - and, well, Pie's .601 OPS there is rather pathetic, sure. But it still dwarfs .333, which is what Fuld is sporting.

Just to make sure that we're on the same page here, let's check the dictionary:

ac·com·plished (ə-kŏm'plĭsht)
adj.

1. Skilled; expert: an accomplished pianist.
2. Having many social graces; polished or refined.
3. Unquestionable; indubitable: That smoking causes health problems is an accomplished fact.

I'm guessing that Wittenmyer is trying for the first meaning of the word. Which... no. Maybe if you'd used disciplined, I'd buy... but no. This isn't a freaking beauty pageant here - I do not care if you cringe at how utterly hacktastic Pie is at the plate, he has more skill as a hitter than Sam Fuld.

Oh, and as far as Fuld recognizing his power difficency more than Pie - well I'd freaking hope so. He's 30 or so points behind Pie in Isolated Slugging, best-case scenario. And Fuld is a lot closer to the peak age for power hitting than Pie.

Labels: Baseball, Chicago Cubs, Felix Pie, Gordon Wittenmyer, Sam Fuld, Steel-Cage Match

Two people (which is a not-insubstantial proportion of my readership at this point) are curious about Ryan Theriot's defense, and how he stacks up compared to the league average. One specifically wants to know how he stacks up against the Cubs 2007 MVP-in-Spirit, Mark DeRosa. (Derrek Lee being the MVP-in-Fact.)

Well, I'm happy to oblige. Welcome to Thunderdome. Two scrappy, white middle infielders enter; one scrappy, white middle infielder leaves.

Mark DeRosa was +2.5 Batting Runs compared to the league average in 2007; Ryan Theriot was -22.8 Batting Runs. (It turns out that SS, 2B and CF hit for roughly the league average. This doesn't matter so much just comparing the two, but it's useful to note.)

But what about next season? I would expect DeRosa's offense to fall of a bit, and Theriot's to improve by a bit. CHONE sees DeRosa as being right around league average, and Theriot to be -12 compared to average. ZiPS sees DeRosa about 2-3 runs below average, Theriot roughly -15. So 12 runs different on offense, or about a win.

The short answer on defense: Sean Smith makes his defensive projections available; they're not the best projections on defense but they're the best readily available. (MGL's UZR defensive projections are probably the best I'm aware of, but UZR is published sporadically at best.) The projection sees Theriot defensively at -1 at shortstop, and DeRosa at -6.

So between the two, I'd say that DeRosa is the better choice at shortstop between the two. Both of them would be below-average shortstops, but I think we had all figured that out already.

This is just a quick, cursory look at the question; I plan on doing some posts in a while that go more in-depth into offensive and defensive metrics in general, and may touch on the specific merits (or lack thereof) of Ryan Theriot more when I do.

For those curious - CHONE has Cedeno at -6 on offense, and ZiPS has him about even with Theriot. The defensive projections see Cedeno as even with Theriot.

Edit: If you believe ZiPS, then your best infield (with current personnel) is probably: Lee, Fontenot, DeRosa, Ramirez. (Fontenot is -11 at shortstop, if you're curious.) If you believe CHONE, then it's Lee, DeRosa, Cedeno, Ramirez.

Labels: Baseball, Chicago Cubs, Defense, Linear Weights, Mark DeRosa, Ryan Theriot, Steel-Cage Match