The Other Fifteen

Let's assume for a moment that he's only going to be out a few days. That assumption means no callups. How best to deal with Soriano's injury? (When I say wins, I mean WAR over a full season.)

DeRosa in left, Fontenot at second?

This should come as no surprise to you - DeRosa is less valuable as a left fielder than as a second baseman - by about half a win. Fontenot, meanwhile, is somewhere between 1 to 1.5 wins worse than DeRosa at second.

Ward in left?

Ward is below replacement as a left fielder, given his atrocious defense in the outfield. In fact, the more I think about it, the more I don't like having Ward on the team. He makes the bench seem a lot shorter than it really is.

Johnson in left?

Probably the best option; it's, after all, why teams carry fourth outfielders. That means keeping Pie in the lineup, however, which the team has seem reluctant to do so far this season.

Labels: Alfonso Soriano, Baseball, Chicago Cubs, Felix Pie, Mark DeRosa, Reed Johnson, WAR

Felix Pie is being freed from the bench for at least one afternoon of baseball, according to Paul Sullivan. Not for good reasons like "defense" or "needing at-bats to develop." Nope. Because he's speedy!

Manager Lou Piniella said Pie sat so much because the Cubs faced four left-handers on the trip, and he expects him back in the lineup Tuesday night against Cincinnati's Aaron Harang. Piniella said he wants more speed in the lineup and to be more aggressive on the basepaths.

"The possibility there is to put as much speed as we can and force the action a little," Piniella said. "We've done that in a few games, but basically I've stayed with a set lineup."

The speediest Cubs lineup would include Pie in center and Ronny Cedeno at second, giving the Cubs four legitimate base-stealing threats, along with Ryan Theriot and Alfonso Soriano.

Of course, Pie and Soriano have to get on base to make use of their speed, and if Cedeno starts, Mark DeRosa would have to come off the bench.

I have no idea if Sullivan's remarks about Cedeno are indicative of all about Lou's thinking; the goal is certainly not to have Theriot and Cedeno in the lineup, so I certainly hope he's just idly musing about such things.

Labels: Baseball, Chicago Cubs, Felix Pie, Mark DeRosa, Ronny Cedeno, Ryan Theriot

Let's take a look at the accumulated press reports and see if we can't divine what Lou's plans are for the day, shall we?

• Henry Blanco will start. Soto's a young guy, but he hardly leads the team in days off at this point, and it's a long season. I'd prefer it to be J.D. Closser as the backup, but what do I know, right?
• Hill is going to pitch in relief today. I imagine this will change if Marquis is having a complete-game no hitter or something, but other than that the idea is to get a few innings out of Hill and hopefully see an improvement in his ability to pitch in the zone.
• Gordon Wittenmeyer hints that last night's odd arrangement (putting Fukudome in left center and DeRosa in right) might become more common, as the Cubs try to work Mike Fontenot into the lineup so that we can have two lefties. (May I suggest Eric Patterson?) [Sorry about the mixup - I typed left and meant center for Fukudome. -CW]
• Expect to see either Johnson or Cedeno or both today; both have hit Moyers very well in their careers. (Which is something I don't care about but Lou does.) Johnson was probably a given anyways. The other Cubs who have hit Moyers well are D-Lee and Rich Hill. (Maybe that's why he's starting today.)

Labels: Baseball, Chicago Cubs, Felix Pie, Geovanny Soto, Henry Blanco, Jason Marquis, Reed Johnson, Rich Hill, Ronny Cedeno, Ryan Theriot

Let's talk a bit about sample size and regression to the mean, shall we? I feel like I owe some actual examples of what I'm talking about given my recent screed on the topic.

Let's go ahead and do a throwdown-to-showdown, between Cubs centerfield options Felix Pie and Reed Johnson. (It's a hot topic of discussion among Cubs fans who aren't too busy pining after Ronny Cedeno.) And let's use OBP as our stat of choice for comparing them for the moment. How much more often will Johnson get on base than Pie?

We're simply going to focus on 2008 production for just a minute, because people seem to be much more excited about 2008 production to date than they are about the latest build of the ZiPS projections, for instance.

According to Baseball-Reference.com, Reed Johnson has a .478 OBP in 23 plate appearances; Pie has a .217 OBP in 23 plate appearances. Obviously Johnson is a better choice as a center fielder, just based upon OBP, right?

At 23 plate appearances apiece, we know no such thing. What we do know, on the other hand, is that both of them are major league baseball players, and the central tendancy of OBP talent among major league players is roughly .330. That's the mean; now we can regress to the mean. (A great primer on how to do that is available from Sal at Athletics Nation.)

Once we go ahead and regress Reed Johnson's OBP to the mean, we end up with a .338 OBP. For Pie, once we regress to the mean, we end up with a .321 OBP.

Fun, right?

Labels: Baseball, Chicago Cubs, Felix Pie, Projections, Reed Johnson

The Cubs have had a wild ride the past few days, somewhat masking the fact that the Cubs have a four-game winning streak under their belts. They haven't been winning pretty, but they've been winning.

And while Lou calls it simply "playing his bench," I don't know how many teams are sitting two starters on back-to-back days in this early in the season. Ryan Theriot and Felix Pie have been sitting in favor of Ronny Cedeno and Reed Johnson. Both Cedeno and Johnson have been taking advantage of their opportunities; Johnson is hitting .375/.474/.438 so far, for an OPS of 912, while Cedeno hits .333/.400/.444, for an OPS of .844.

Meanwhile, Pie has a .200/.238/.200 line to his name, and Theriot is at an amazing .207/.281/.241 batting line on the season so far.

I don't think either Pie or Theriot have precisely lost their jobs yet - Pie is probably in a platoon situation for the time being, with Johnson eyeing more of Pie's playing time. His game-winning hit probably helped his cause some.

Theriot, on the other hand, needs to seriously keep his eyes open for some infield predation at this point. Pie was a top prospect who was held out of a lot of trading talks by the Cubs this winter; Theriot's no better than a lot of minor league journeymen at this point and is lucky to have a spot on a 25-man roster.

[Yes, there may be some wishful thinking in that paragraph. When June rolls around and Pie is either traded or at AAA, while Theriot is still our starting shortstop, I plan on eating my own arm off for fun.]

Labels: Baseball, Chicago Cubs, Felix Pie, Reed Johnson, Ronny Cedeno, Ryan Theriot

Okay, so apparently the big storyline in Mesa so far this year is the epic battle between Felix Pie and Sam Fuld. Anyone willing to gag me with a spoon now will have my eternal gratitude.

But even in the context of this asinine little contest, Gordon Wittenmyer has gone too far:

STICK
Neither has big-time major-league power, a fact better recognized by Fuld, who has less spectacular minor-league numbers but is a more accomplished hitter with a smaller strike zone that he uses to his advantage. EDGE: Fuld.

Um.

Let's review. 2007, AAA Iowa, center fielders. FIGHT!

So, let me get this straight - the "more accomplished" hitter is the one that came up to AAA, put up some very fluky numbers (given his AA performance) in a small sample size, and STILL is .145 points of OPS behind Pie? Or maybe they're talking about accomplishments in the majors - and, well, Pie's .601 OPS there is rather pathetic, sure. But it still dwarfs .333, which is what Fuld is sporting.

Just to make sure that we're on the same page here, let's check the dictionary:

ac·com·plished (ə-kŏm'plĭsht)
adj.

1. Skilled; expert: an accomplished pianist.
2. Having many social graces; polished or refined.
3. Unquestionable; indubitable: That smoking causes health problems is an accomplished fact.

I'm guessing that Wittenmyer is trying for the first meaning of the word. Which... no. Maybe if you'd used disciplined, I'd buy... but no. This isn't a freaking beauty pageant here - I do not care if you cringe at how utterly hacktastic Pie is at the plate, he has more skill as a hitter than Sam Fuld.

Oh, and as far as Fuld recognizing his power difficency more than Pie - well I'd freaking hope so. He's 30 or so points behind Pie in Isolated Slugging, best-case scenario. And Fuld is a lot closer to the peak age for power hitting than Pie.

Labels: Baseball, Chicago Cubs, Felix Pie, Gordon Wittenmyer, Sam Fuld, Steel-Cage Match