Updated WAR chart for hitters
5 Comments Published by Colin Wyers on Tuesday, February 19, 2008 at 11:45 PM.
I decided to do something a little different this time and break down the chart by positions. It helped me sort out some of the playing time issues, at any rate, and I think it's rather nifty to look at. Guys like DeRosa, Cedeno and Murton who are expected to play multiple positions get the most milage out of it.
| Name | PA | wOBA | Defense | WAR |
| PITCHER | 370 | 0 | ||
| CATCHER | ||||
| Geovanny Soto | 512 | 0.355 | 0.50 | 3.28 |
| Henry Blanco | 188 | 0.301 | 0.50 | 0.36 |
| JD Closser | 48 | 0.323 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| FIRST BASE | ||||
| Derrek Lee | 632 | 0.396 | 0.50 | 4.39 |
| Daryle Ward | 50 | 0.354 | -1.43 | 0.04 |
| Mark DeRosa | 22 | 0.342 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| SECOND BASE | ||||
| Mark DeRosa | 422 | 0.342 | -0.57 | 1.00 |
| Mike Fontenot | 225 | 0.317 | -0.29 | 0.16 |
| SHORTSTOP | ||||
| Ryan Theriot | 542 | 0.312 | -0.10 | 0.69 |
| Ronny Cedeno | 130 | 0.331 | -0.10 | 0.37 |
| THIRD BASE | ||||
| Aramis Ramirez | 572 | 0.385 | -0.19 | 3.71 |
| Mark DeRosa | 112 | 0.342 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Ronny Cedeno | 20 | 0.331 | -0.29 | 0.04 |
| LEFT FIELD | ||||
| Alfonso Soriano | 621 | 0.371 | 0.57 | 3.53 |
| Matt Murton | 110 | 0.357 | 0.29 | 0.45 |
| Daryle Ward | 60 | .354 | -1 | 0.12 |
| CENTER FIELD | ||||
| Felix Pie | 556 | 0.328 | 1.43 | 2.66 |
| Ronny Cedeno | 68 | 0.331 | -0.67 | 0.14 |
| Sam Fuld | 65 | 0.307 | -0.10 | 0.06 |
| RIGHT FIELD | ||||
| Kosuke Fukudome | 560 | 0.381 | 0.95 | 3.96 |
| Matt Murton | 110 | 0.357 | 0.12 | 0.43 |
| Sam Fuld | 38 | 0.307 | -0.10 | 0.03 |
| DH/PH | ||||
| Matt Murton | 60 | 0.328 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Daryle Ward | 70 | 0.344 | -1.43 | 0.04 |
| 6103 | 26.08 |
I plan on cleaning up the presentation of this and doing some other things with it, but I'd like to get some feedback on it for the time being. wOBA is still pretty much entirely driven by CHONE, and I plan on doing some minor revising in that department. Pitcher hitting is entirely accounted for, and there's about 200-300 replacement-level at-bats included in there, so I don't think I'm being unreasonable about playing time.
Labels: Baseball, Chicago Cubs, Linear Weights, Projections, WAR
Playing time estimates look a lot better done this way. Much easier to see and I think these are more realistic than what you previously had.
I like the work you've done on calculating the WAR for all the Cubs players. I have a couple of questions on these calculations.
1) Have you made any adjustments to take into account "park factors"? If so, where in the calculations did you do that.
2) Does there need to be a differentiation between the AL and NL league averages for wOBA and ERA if running these numbers for an NL team vs an AL team? If so, what are those different numbers?
Thanks!
vr, Xei
I haven't done a lot with park factors yet; I probably should do more.
Yes, there are different values for the AL and NL. If you're interested in doing this for other teams, Sean Smith is graciously hosting this nifty little tool that computes WAR for you. wOBA and FIP-ERA calculators are included.
Colin,
Thanks, yeah I saw that calculator. When I used it, it had the columns hidden that had the formulas in them. I'd prefer to see the actual formula, then compare it to the way I am doing it. Also, I think park factors are a huge part of this calculation. Especially when looking at teams like the Padres, Rockies, Phillies, Cubs etc...
So do you know what the league averages are for the NL and AL? That's what is probably in the hidden columns. Perhaps I could reverse enginner it. :)
vr, Xei
Unhiding the columns should be relatively simple - just select everything, right click on the top and select "Unhide."
The full method is spelled out on Tango's blog. Replacement bonus for the AL is a half-win higher - 2.5 instead of 2.
Positional adjustments:
+1.0 wins C
+0.5 SS/CF
+0.0 2B/3B
-0.5 LF/RF/PH
-1.0 1B
-1.5 DH
For park factors, what I'd probably do is change the average wOBA/ERA to whatever the average would be for the park and go from there.