The Other Fifteen

Eighty-five percent of the f---in' world is working. The other fifteen come out here.


Roberts trade looking less likely

Per Ken Rosenthal:
The chances of the Orioles trading All-Star second baseman Brian Roberts to the Cubs seem to diminish each day.

Roberts is a favorite of Peter Angelos, the one player who maintains an open dialogue with the owner. Thus, Angelos is reluctant to trade him — and especially reluctant if the Orioles do not receive a knockout package in return.

At this late stage, such a package almost certainly would need to include shortstop Ronny Cedeno, who would take over at shortstop, with Luis Hernandez moving to second base.

The Orioles, though, would be left with perhaps the game's worst middle infield. And they probably could get Cedeno, who is out of options, in a separate deal.

It would be just about like the Cubs to trade Cedeno for Peyton at this point, wouldn't it.

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5 Responses to “Roberts trade looking less likely”

  1. # Blogger Wrigleyville

    i choose to believe this whole thing has been the chicago/baltimore baseball writer full employment act.  

  2. # Anonymous DeRoMyHero

    I think I've said this before...

    McPhail cannot trade Roberts unless he can convince a team to overpay as badly as the 'Stros did for Tejada; otherwise, he knows Angelos will veto.

    Hendry is looking for a "nice upgrade", he's not trying to fill a black hole. He's not desparate enough to give up one of his few young studs.

    Therefore, no trade.

    Peter, I hope you enjoy watching your mancrush put up some meaningless stats for your 110 loss team.  

  3. # Anonymous Maddog

    Except dero, those same people who have said Angelos would nix a Roberts deal have also said that if Roberts requested the trade, Angelos would allow it. Roberts didn't demand a trade yesterday, but he did tell them if it's going to happen he wants it to happen soon and has talked with Angelos about it and god only knows what was said between them.

    I don't think the Roberts deal happens because the Cubs would be foolish to give up as much as the O's want in return.  

  4. # Anonymous DeRoMyHero

    Colin,

    You're enough of a stats guy that you may have already considered this...

    Is there any way to judge a "good walk rate" (a.k.a. "plate discipline)? After all, not all walks are equally good for hitters or bad for pitchers.

    1. For Rickey Henderson or Tim Raines, a walk is almost always good. Even though both had some power (especially Henderson), they created more problems by just getting on base.
    2. For Barry Bonds, a walk (particularly with RISP) is usually bad -- especially with Pedro Feliz behind him. Maybe he should have expanded his SZ a bit, trading a few more outs for more RBI potential. Was he selfish to guard his stats at the expense of the team, or would his performance have slipped too much?
    3. For some aggressive hitters (Aramis Ramirez, Michael Young), trying to get them to draw more walks would diminish their overall effectiveness. They do so much damage with fastballs early in the count that a walk would be a consolation prize.
    4. A cleanup hitter like Adam Dunn accomplishes less with a walk than a leadoff hitter. The guy behind him likely is not as good of a hitter, and it takes at least 4 singles to score Dunn from 1B. Would he do more damage by being more aggressive?
    5. A #8 hitter has to adjust based on the situation, i.e., he must be capable of being patient or aggressive.

    I ask this because I have seen reviews of Tyler Colvin that say he "needs more plate discipline". If he can produce like Michael Young when he swings, who cares?

    Conversely, the Rangers have a young DH named Jason Botts, who has made a living in AAA of taking pitchers 3-2, then hitting the cripple fastball. (He is Adam Dunn with more speed -- BB, K, HR.) The jury seems to be out on whether he can hit anything other than a fastball down the middle -- a requirement in the ML, especially as a DH.

    Has anyone come up with a way to analyze good walk rates based on type of hitter or spot in the batting order?  

  5. # Blogger Samael2681

    It's funny. People are upset that we are only offering ML-ready talent that isn't high ceiling. They say they should keep him and he'll either be worth more later, or be worth the picks they would get for him.

    I don't think there is any situation where they are going to get more for Roberts than right now, since he's with the team that gets him for 2 years and every day of the regular season is one less day that the receiving team has to improve their situation. It's rather ridiculous to think that he will be worth more, especially considering he's gotten worse every month as the season's worn on, and every team knows this.

    The other thing is how dumb it would be to wait it out and take the picks. While a 1st and supplemental pick are nothing to sneeze at, the odds of either one of those players making it to the bigs for even a cup of coffee is 50% or less, let alone actually being a regular or star.

    I just can't believe how much veterans can be over-valued in markets like this. I actually think it would be a good idea for both teams to get what they can by trading now for something along the lines of Marshall, Patterson or Cedeno and a third (and maybe 4th) non-40 player for Roberts and another player. If they spun Bedard into a good package there's a good chance they can do the same with Marshall in a few years when he's started staying healthy all season and is posting sub-4 ERA's in the AL East and they still aren't competing because they aren't really sure what direction they are going in as an organization.  

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