The Other Fifteen

Rick Morrissey wants you to know that even if that math stuff may have worked in the past, he wants no part of it.

But they don't run the world, yet, which means we can still type in our credit card numbers online without worrying that all our money is being sucked into a fund earmarked for global dominance by a dastardly computer.

Computers have no use for heart, or least they can't quantify it. They can't analyze what's inside an athlete, for example. They can't tell you who has the heart of a lion or the backbone of an earthworm.

Computers can't tell you that White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko is upset with how he played last season. All they can tell you is that he hit .259 in 2007, that he just turned 32 and, therefore, he must be on the downside of his career because that's what the model says is supposed to happen to him.

Right. Computers can only tell you about the relevant facts. God, I would love to see Morrissey cover the financial markets once:

Computers have no use for heart, or least they can't quantify it. They can't analyze what's inside a mid-level sales associate, for example. They can't tell you who has the heart of a lion or the backbone of an earthworm.

Computers can't tell you that Countrywide mortgage specialist John Doe is upset with how he performed last quarter. All they can tell you is that the housing market is in a decline, his company is facing bankrupcy, therefore, his sales and commissions are likely to continue to decline next quarter.

Just once!

The best part, and the part I want to address without mocking, is this:

That the Sox dropped from 90 victories in 2006 to 72 games last season was one of the shocks of the baseball season. But not to Baseball Prospectus, and the people who run it deserve their props. They chalk up a lot of what happened on the South Side last season to the inevitability of time catching up with older athletes. I chalk it up to a number of players having down years at the same time.

Isn't there room for a number of Sox to have good years at the same time? Say, in 2008? If Jim Thome stays healthy, he could have an excellent season. It's a big "if," of course, but not like wondering if, say, the rain can hold off in Seattle for a month or two.

It's possible that a number of Sox players could have good years (that is, play above their expected talent level) at once. I know this to be true, because I've seen it happen; that was the year they won the World Series.

So it's possible. But, and I'm going to try and emphasize this as much as possible:

Projections, in baseball or anything else, are simply the best estimate we have given the data available of the most likely future performance.

When PECOTA (or anything else, for that matter), projects the White Sox to win 77 games, there's a six-win standard deviation on that forecast. Absolutely has to be; in 162 games you cannot get any more accurate than that. So the Sox could win anywhere from 71 to 83 games and the forecast would be on target.

Could the White Sox exceed their forecast by another standard deviation? Sure. All of the aging players on that team could simultaneously "defy" their aging curve, some of their younger players could have unforeseen breakout seasons... a lot could happen. But it's not likely.

The improbable is possible. But there's absolutely no reason to project the improbable.

Labels: Baseball, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Media, Projections

The Trib (Dave van Dyck, I should clarify) sits down with Nate Silver and talks to him about PECOTA's projections for the Cubs and White Sox. They did the same thing last year, and had great fun with the reactions of the White Sox to the rather dour forecast PECOTA had for them. Welllll...

Just ask the 2007 White Sox, who were coming off a World Series championship and then a 90-victory season only to be picked to finish 72-90 by the modern-day baseball folks who feed historical information into computers.

And those 2007 Sox finished … 72-90, much to the amazement of those who dismissed the data spit out by the Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, better known as PECOTA.

What is ahead for Chicago's baseball teams in 2008? The predictions:

• The Sox, because of a series of off-season dealings, will rebound to 77-85 and third place in the American League Central, trailing the dominance of Cleveland and Detroit.
• The Cubs will follow their 85-victory NL Central championship with another division title, this time with a 91-71 record, second best in the National League but not enough to break their 100-year drought of winning the World Series.

I'm pretty sure those forecasts will seem reasonable (and perhaps familiar) to anyone who frequents this site; I'd buy on both of those. I should note that the preseason forecasts are pretty reliable when it comes to predicting division winners; the wild card is probably a little trickier and the playoffs are an utter crapshoot. The Mets may, as he says, be the favorites to represent the NL in the Series, but that's a lot less reliable of a forecast than the one that has the Mets winning the East.

There are still some "mainstream press taking on a complex topic" sort of mistakes; for example:

He helped design PECOTA and put out a fascinating bible for baseball statisticians ("Baseball Prospectus 2008," available at bookstores) that includes thousands of computerized calculations on players and teams. In the past, most have proved amazingly accurate.

Silver is probably deeply involved in the publication of BP2008, but it's not a solo effort like Bill James' Baseball Abstracts were; if there's an individual mostly responsible for the BP annual it's probably Christina Kahrl. I'm nitpicking, of course; nothing's precisely wrong about that graf, but it doesn't exactly communicate the whole truth about the matter. It's just the sort of thing that I notice reflexively; spent way too many years doing press clippings, I guess.

Anyways, back to the analysis:

Who is the closer to take over from Ryan Dempster, who has moved to the rotation and whom Silver says will "be fine as a No. 4 starter"? Silver factored in Kerry Wood, Bob Howry and Carlos Marmol.

"All these guys, we think, will be fine," Silver said. "None [is a] top closer. Dempster was not that good a closer, so there's not that much to lose."

One thing that would help the Cubs is trading for Baltimore second baseman Brian Roberts, who would lead off.

"My guess is that he would add another two or three wins to the bottom line," Silver said. "Leadoff hitter has been kind of an Achilles' heel for the Cubs. We like guys who get on base. The [rumored] trade makes a lot of sense."

The thing about Dempster would be interesting to hear Silver justify further; run Dempster's PECOTA-projected ERA through Silver's own "quick-and-dirty" starter-to-reliever conversion and it jumps to a very unsightly 5.30 ERA, far worse than what ZiPS or CHONE are projecting for him.

And I don't see how Roberts adds two to three wins to this team; or perhaps I should say I don't see how the Roberts trade adds two to three wins to this team. Losing Gallagher is a huge blow to the team's rotation depth, and losing Cedeno kills any hope of getting out from under the impending Ryan Theriot Menace. And including Pie or Colvin (as the O's are reported asking for) further skews the deal toward irresponsible.

Maybe I'm overattatched to Cubs prospects, and maybe Silver doesn't keep up with the daily Roberts rumor mill. Who knows.

Labels: Baseball, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Projections

ChiSox fans are complaining about the idea of a Crede-for-Lowry swap, and... okay, so I haven't really looked into this, but, what? Lowry strikes me as a solidly above-average starter who's young and a lefty; that's not a bad return for one year of a third baseman who:

1. Doesn't hit particularly well.
2. Just had back surgery.
3. Blocks a good, young player in Josh Fields.

So... yeah. I just don't get it. If we had an over-the-hill third baseman who couldn't hit, I'd love for the Cubs to trade him for Lowry.

Labels: Baseball, Chicago White Sox, Trade Rumors

All of the traditional signs that baseball was getting under way were showing up - pitchers and catchers reporting, photos coming out of Mesa, a flood of newspaper articles... but something was missing.

That something, thankfully, has been found. Ozzie Guillen has finally started running his mouth.

''I'll be cocky,'' Guillen said Saturday as Sox pitchers and catchers held their first workout. ''If we win this year, I might run naked down Michigan Avenue like people expect me to do.''

It's good to have the real Ozzie Guillen back.

He was missing most of last season, holding his tongue and holing up too often in his office. He toned down his comments to shield his players from answering questions each day about the latest Ozzie outburst. Turns out, most of the players didn't mind.

Yeah, Ozzie Guillen was "toned down" last season. Whatever you say, Chris DeLuca. But he promises to turn up the crazy for this season!

''If my [stuff] sells papers every day and we win, well, I want to be on the front page every day,'' Guillen said. ''As long as I don't rape anybody, as long a I pay my taxes, I don't beat my wife ... if I am going to be on the front page of the newspaper because of [expletive] baseball, I will take that.

''If more people treat baseball the way I treat baseball, this [expletive] game will be better.''

Exactly, Ozzie - just so long as you don't rape anybody, everything will be fine. Way to hold yourself to a high standard - no raping, and paying your taxes.

In picking apart the 2007 White Sox, plenty of things went wrong. A popular knock among the critics is this team that had been known for thriving with a chip on its shoulder suddenly was too nice.

''They're right,'' Guillen said. ''You cover this ballclub last year, you say, 'Wow, what a nice team to cover.' No, it's not fun to cover a team like that. Well, it's not fun to [expletive] manage a team like that, either.

''We stunk last year.''

Yep. Clearly a chip on everyone's shoulder is going to fix the worst offense in the AL from last season. And make Jose Contreras pitch better.

Yeah. Enjoy fifth place, asshole.

Labels: Baseball, Chicago White Sox, Ozzie Guillen

Do you know what the White Sox think they lacked last season?

Attitude.

You're... you're kidding me, right? Please tell me you're joking. You can't mean it, right, Kenny Williams?

"The greatest asset is what [the players] have heard or read or seen," the Sox general manager said Friday at SoxFest. "To a man, they [have] a little edge or chip, and I'm not going to stop that."

 

Okay, so I guess you do mean it. But at least the players don't buy into it, right?

"I don't know if you want to call it a chip on your shoulder, but that's what we're going to need," team captain Paul Konerko said. "There's no question, if you're looking from the outside, at best we're going to be picked to finish third. And we should use that as motivation.
"[Detroit and Cleveland are] coming off very good years, haven't lost anything and even gained something. So we [should] embrace the underdog role a little bit. Our attitude is definitely going to have to be … a feeling of fighting an uphill battle, because that's likely what it will be."

Yeah, "uphill battle" is how I might put it. Perhaps through driving snow. Without shoes. While being strafed by machine gun fire.

I mean... you do know that you had Darin Erstad last season, right? That man had as many chips on his shoulder as you could want in a player, and look where that got you.

Labels: Baseball, Chicago White Sox, Kenny Williams

This strikes me as being messy. Question and answer sessions are said to have been heated. But Kenny Williams was able to sate the masses:

"I will take a risk on a high-ceiling players and jeopardize my reputation if I think that player fits into the equation and leads us to a championship if things go the way we think they will," [Kenny] Williams said during a five-minute reply that finished with applause. "If you leave here today, understand this: every move, every decision we make is in an effort to win a championship."

Williams is gambling a lot on this season, and I don't think the Indians and the Tigers will be very forgiving. This is still a team that could finish last place in the division.

Labels: Baseball, Chicago White Sox, Kenny Williams