2008 Cubs Opening Day Roster, by WAR, Part II
4 Comments Published by Colin Wyers on Thursday, March 27, 2008 at 11:41 AM.
This is really rushed - suffice it to say that I don't think a lot of people will be pleased with what I'm going to call the Kerry Wood Issue, and I don't have a good answer for you right now. Otherwise, I like what I'm seeing with our pitching staff.
This is park adjusted. Thanks to Sam Larson for some tweaks to the relief pitcher calculations.
I'm really not married to any of these forecasts, and hope to publish a revised set of both charts this weekend. I just know that if I didn't publish something, I would forget to do so entirely.
Labels: Baseball, Chicago Cubs, Pitching, WAR
Where are these projections coming from? Same ERA as last season? No reliever with an ERA over 4? Sean Marshall with the best ERA among the relievers? No innings started for Lieber?
Average forecast from PECOTA, ZiPS, CHONE, Marcels, Bill James and CAIRO. Playing time estimates are my own. Remember, this is supposed to reflect the Cubs opening day roster - the Cubs have declared that for right now, Lieber is a reliever and Marquis/Dempster are starters.
Marshall's ERA is translated from his starter's ERA. As for relievers with an above-four ERA, well, that'd probably show up in the 150 or so (I think) innings allotted to replacement-level players.
So Marmol is regressing to mean this season?
You expect everyone to regress to the mean - in Marmol's case you expect a heavier regression because his 2006 and 2005 seasons simply aren't that good.
Now, this forecast doesn't include the BCB community projections; when I get around to adding that, I would think that Marmol's numbers would improve.