The Other Fifteen

I went back and added a few more projection systems to the mix, added a bit more analysis (basically, the difference between the most and least optimistic forecast) and spruced it up a bit in Photoshop.

Click on the image for a larger size PNG.

If you're interested in playing with the numbers yourself and don't need the fancy colors, you can take a look at the spreadsheet I made with EditGrid.

And finally, the projection systems used:

• PECOTA
• CHONE
• ZiPS
• CAIRO
• Bill James Handbook
• Marcels

Remember: these numbers are a rate version of linear weights scaled to batting average - .260 is considered average. These aren't actual batting averages.


UPDATE: And so playing around with Excel 2007 a bit more, I found some absurdly cool functions that look better with less work. So... here's those.

First, the same chart as above, but better:



And now, sorted by difference between "best" and "worst" forecast:

Utterly scandalous.

Labels: Baseball, Chicago Cubs, Projections