Another look at Cintron
1 Comments Published by Colin Wyers on Tuesday, February 19, 2008 at 12:28 AM.
Earlier I took a quick look at how Cintron might fare next season, seeing as how, y'know, we have him and everything. I used the rather pessimistic CHONE forecast - not that any of the other forecasts put him with an OPS over .700 or anything useful like that, but even considering that it's Alex Cintron we're talking about the numbers weren't kind.
Running an absurdly, dumber-than-Marcels dumb forecast, I come up with a .287 wOBA for Cintron next season - I'm missing regression to the mean as a component. (Marcels figures him for a .303 wOBA next season.)
I've run across some comments that last season's performance was degraded by health issues that have seemingly cleared up, and maybe there's some cause for optimism. So... let's redo our absurdly dumb projection, except let's give his 2007 performance less weight - say, use a 3/4/3 weighted average.
Doing that, we get a .291 wOBA. Not a whole heck of a lot of difference - we should be regressing to the mean here, but it's getting late and I'm tired.
This is just me thinking out loud here - but this is an instance where we can consider data that our projection systems aren't able (as of yet) to process and see what conclusions we can draw. Do I stand by any of this? Not a chance. Like I said, thinking aloud. I'd like to hear what some of you think, too.
Running an absurdly, dumber-than-Marcels dumb forecast, I come up with a .287 wOBA for Cintron next season - I'm missing regression to the mean as a component. (Marcels figures him for a .303 wOBA next season.)
I've run across some comments that last season's performance was degraded by health issues that have seemingly cleared up, and maybe there's some cause for optimism. So... let's redo our absurdly dumb projection, except let's give his 2007 performance less weight - say, use a 3/4/3 weighted average.
Doing that, we get a .291 wOBA. Not a whole heck of a lot of difference - we should be regressing to the mean here, but it's getting late and I'm tired.
This is just me thinking out loud here - but this is an instance where we can consider data that our projection systems aren't able (as of yet) to process and see what conclusions we can draw. Do I stand by any of this? Not a chance. Like I said, thinking aloud. I'd like to hear what some of you think, too.
Labels: Alex Cintron, Baseball, Chicago Cubs, Projections
