The Other Fifteen

Lou is offering us a sneak peak at what it's going to feel like when he's acting like an idiot during the regular season:

Piniella said he plans to move Alfonso Soriano out of the leadoff spot and bat him second, with Ryan Theriot leading off. If it looks good in camp, that could be the order he settles on for the regular season, he said before today’s game against the Texas Rangers.

That is, until/unless the Cubs make the much anticipated trade with Baltimore for leadoff hitter Brian Roberts, in which case Soriano might stay in the 2 hole or even move closer to the middle.

"This gives us a sneak preview,"’ Piniella said.

Until then, he said, "We’re just going to look at it. That’s what spring training is for."

Which, whatever. I am Jack's raging spleen, but there's absolutely nothing I can do about it. So, instead of ranting about it (I fully plan to later, when there's time), let's step back and take a cold, calculated, rational look at the matter with a lineup simulator. I'm using the average forecasts of several systems, helpfully supplied by Harry Pavlidis. And I'm presuming the lineup is:

1. Theriot
   
2. Soriano
   
3. Lee
   
4. Ramirez
   
5. Fukudome
   
6. DeRosa
   
7. Soto
   
8. Pie
   
9. Pitcher

Maybe I should give Lou the benefit of the doubt and move Soto up and DeRosa down, but at this point Lou can get the benefit of the doubt back when he does something to earn it, as far as I'm concerned.

Lou's brilliantly conceived lineup scores 4.953 runs per game; the optimal lineup scores 5.224 runs per game. Let's look at how many runs that will cost the team over 138 games - basically, 85% of the season. We'll leave some room for days off in our analysis.

The Lou Lineup scores roughly 684 runs; the computer-gerenated lineup scores roughly 721 runs, for a difference of about 36 runs or about 3.5 wins.

3.5 wins.

Can I go back to the whole "rage" thing again?

UPDATE: I've run some more lineup numbers and go over them at BCB. Consider it "Colin in syndication."

Upon further reflection, once you have Ryan Theriot in your lineup, arguing over where to bat his is probably a question of what caliber bullet you want to shoot yourself in the foot with. [I'm cribbing from myself here.] So a lot of this is just a few month's frustrations with Lou and the team's overall philosophy coming to a head.

Lou is obsessed with getting some speed at the top of the order. I just want to get some people at the top of the order who will get on base in front of our big bats. It's starting to look like there are irreconcilable differences here.

Labels: Alfonso Soriano, Baseball, Chicago Cubs, Projections, Ryan Theriot